MAD to even madder
27 abril, 2012
While the American nation is choosing which Republican candidate will champion Obama in the upcoming elections, bringing up the issues of medical care, gun possession and austerity, at the other side of the ocean another preoccupation is rising more powerful than ever.
Decades after the cold war new candidate to presidency Mitt Romney, very Hollywood like, called Russia “America´s number one geopolitical foe” demonstrating a shocking lack of contemporary history knowledge or a straight forward declaration of the USA foreign policy if Republicans happen to win the elections. As a result of this reckless statement, the issue of National Missile Defense has surfaced in every Russian social blog, this time calling the plans of America to NMD system positioning in Poland and the Czech Republic a public offence.
For nearly half a century cold war gave stability because MAD, nicknamed appropriately, the Mutual Assured Destruction could be seen as a political ideology based on one paradoxically simple thing – an appraisal of human nature. It held that countries advanced enough to build nuclear weapons, would be rational enough not to use them and the leaders were assured in their country security. But those times are over and new measures need to be deployed.
The Bush administration officially announced America’s withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in the end of 2001, and the agreement stop being legal in 2002. One can argue that such a drastic move has been only implemented as an echo of 9/11 terrorist attacks, but in Russia this year is marked with the rise of a new pragmatic leader Vladimir Putin. Moreover, Russian president had repeatedly claimed that national army and national educations are two prerogatives in his presidential terms. Might it be a convenient mix of the war on terrorism and attempt to control Russia’s growth?
So, what if the USA changes its position on NMD system positioning in Poland and the Czech Republic from passive to active?
Once upon a time there was Cuban Missile Crisis (1962) when USSR communist leaders placed tactical missiles with questionable range at U.S. borders. No-name-yet Missile Crisis when U.S.A. president is placing missiles at the Russian boarder. In the Cuban Missile Crisis, Americans said that they would launch nukes unless those missiles were gone. They were ready to end this world…that crisis was communist USSR’s fault. In no-name-yet Missile Crisis Russian politicians announced that they will change defense policy in favor of use of military force and nuclear weapons. Democratic Americans placing those missiles and the whole upcoming crisis should be logically U.S. fault.
I believe that general Makarov recently gave an interview in which he informed the public that if Russian radars detect a launch of a single US – Warsaw antimissile in any direction they would automatically launch actual nuclear warheads on Washington and New-York. Why? Because those missiles have signature of tactical nuclear missiles and they are capable of reaching Moscow in matter of minutes. For that very same reason, if any country does long range missile testing they have to give 1-month notice to US and Russia
Hypothetically speaking, Russia would win any war against anyone but the United States. And United States can win against everyone but Russia because that is the only country in this little world that can reach US boarders. And because the United States does not have any means of intercepting Russian warheads, not even with new THAAD, they are going after missiles not warheads by placing antimissile systems at very boarder. It is a noble idea from their point of view.
Hopefully new presidents of both countries will have wisdom and won’t provoke a second Cuban Missile Crisis.
By: Ksenia Solovyova, Crystal Blankenbaker and Irina Czakó